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本文摘要:From a patent Apple filed in 2011.苹果2011年申请人的一项专利。


From a patent Apple filed in 2011.苹果2011年申请人的一项专利。Led by Peter Burrows, a veteran tech reporter with more than two decades under his belt, Bloomberg has taken a second crack at the Apple (AAPL) iWatch story that the New York Times and Wall Street Journal broke three weeks ago.彼得巴罗斯是一位具有二十多年从业经验的资深科技记者。在他率领下,彭博公司(Bloomberg)在三周前的《纽约时报》(New York Times)和《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)对苹果公司(Apple)iWatch所做到报导的基础上,再度回应展开了了解挖出。

Bloombergs contribution that first week was a report, sourced by two people familiar with the companys plans, that Apple had 100 product designers working on a wristwatch-like device that could perform some of the tasks now handled by the iPhone and iPad.根据两位“熟知苹果公司计划”的知情人士透漏的线索,彭博在第一周公开发表了一篇报导。报导称之为,苹果调用了100位产品设计师,正在研发一款腕表式的设备,能继续执行一些目前由iPhone和iPad已完成的任务。Mondays piece offers an analysis of the smart watch business that makes it look considerably more attractive than the prevailing view on the Internet -- which is that nobody wears a watch anymore except as a fashion statement.星期一的这篇报导分析了智能手表行业。互联网上有一种广泛观点:现在没有人戴着手表了,除非是把它当作一种时尚传达。

相比之下,这篇文章的观点十分独有。Among the points the Bloomberg story makes:彭博这篇报导的主要观点如下:Watches are a big business. The global watch industry will generate $60 billion in sales in 2013.手表是个大产业。

2013年全球手表业销售额将约600亿美元。Watches are a profitable business. Gross margins on watches are about 60%, right in Apples comfort zone.手表业利润可观。

手表的毛利率大约是60%,对苹果来说正中下怀。Watches are a more attractive business than TVs. The margin on watches is about four times bigger than for televisions.手表产业比电视产业更加有吸引力。

手表的利润率大约是电视的四倍。Apple is interested in watches. The company has taken out 79 patents with the word wrist in them, including one for a device with a flexible screen thats powered by kinetic energy.苹果对手表很感兴趣。苹果公司已获得79项所含“手腕”这个词的专利,还包括一款具有拉链屏、动能驱动的设备。

Jony Ive is particularly interested. Apples chief designer owns many high-end models and in the mid-2000s had a team visit Nike and bring home boxes of one of their sports watches.乔纳森艾夫特别是在感兴趣。身兼苹果的首席设计师,他享有众多高端手表。2000年中,他带队拜访了耐克公司(Nike),带上回去耐克的一款运动手表,数量多达好几箱。The timing is right. A 2003 Microsoft-Fossil smart phone partnership fizzled, but customers are more accustomed today to using mobile apps in their everyday lives.正逢良机。

2003年,微软公司(Microsoft)和时尚品牌Fossil在智能手机上的合作流产了。但时至今日,用户比以往更加习惯在生活中用于手机应用于。Among the features under consideration, according to one of Bloombergs sources, is making phone calls, seeing the identity of incoming callers, checking map coordinates, counting steps (with a built-in pedometer) and monitoring health-related data, such as heart rates.据彭博社的一位知情人士透漏,苹果这款手表正在研发的性能还包括:打电话、查阅电话人身份、查阅地图座标、计算出来步数(用内置步数器)、以及监控心率等身体健康信息。


Assuming a 10% market share of a $60 billion market with a 60% gross margin, Bloomberg estimates that Apple could see revenues of up to $3.6 billion with a successful smart watch. Morgan Stanleys Katy Huberty did a similar exercise and came up with incremental revenue to Apple of $10 to $15 billion a year, assuming 20% of Apples existing customers bought one every two years. See her spreadsheet below.如果苹果能在这个总额高达600亿美元的大市场中取得10%的份额,而且毛利率超过60%,彭博预测,苹果需要在这款智能手表身上获得的营收将低约36亿美元。而摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的凯蒂休伯蒂做到了类似于预估,同时明确提出,苹果每年因此取得的增量营收为100亿到150亿美元,这个预测假设苹果现有客户中,20%的人每两年不会卖一个。




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